How To Bet On March Madness Games

The 2020-21 NCAA college basketball season tipped off on Nov. 25. That began a four-and-a-half month journey that will culminate with the 2021 Final Four. This year’s March Madness tournament will take place entirely in the state of Indiana due to COVID-19 precautions.

Last season, the NCAA Tournament was canceled. It had survived World War II, Black Monday, and half a dozen virus outbreaks; but for the first time since 1939, the NCAA was without a true champion.

The cancelation of March Madness was not only a major blow to TV viewership and ticket sales, but it erased the biggest sports betting event of the year. The American Gambling Association (AGA) reported that $8.5 billion was bet on the 2019 March Madness tournament. According to Legal Sports Report, sports gambling in the US jumped an average of 6.8% through the beginning of 2020 following a swath of passed legislation decriminalizing sports gambling. Based on those numbers, it can be projected that the cancelation of the NCAA Tournament lost nearly $9.1 billion in bets.

With the last NCAA tournament game having taken place nearly two years ago, anticipation is huge for this year’s March Madness tourney. Here is a look at the National Title odds with the start of the Big Dance just a couple of weeks away.

Live Betting on March Madness Another excellent March Madness betting option would be to engage in live wagers. As the name suggests, you can place your bets while the games are running. March Madness futures odds. Operators will undoubtedly have a generous array of wagering options on each March Madness game, including moneyline bets, point-spread bets, over/under bets, parlay bets, prop bets, teasers and in-play bets. March Madness betting trends. Most of the money is bet on the spreads of the games. There will be a small amount on moneylines and totals, but fans love to bet big money on their team to win the national title. But not many teams worse than a No. 3 seed has won the tournament. Many analysts say 50 million Americans bet on March Madness picks.

Our recommended betting site for Americans looking to bet on March Madness. A brief breakdown of the sports betting regulatory climate in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Examples of the March Madness bets you can make on individual games and futures. A 3 step guide you can follow to place your March Madness bets online. Derivative odds allow you to bet on segments of March Madness games, such as results from the first half. Derived from the full-game spreads, totals, and moneylines, these markets are.

March Madness futures odds

Operators will undoubtedly have a generous array of wagering options on each March Madness game, including moneyline bets, point-spread bets, over/under bets, parlay bets, prop bets, teasers and in-play bets.

Those wagering options will be made available soon. However, here are current futures odds for the top projected tournament participants in the 2020-21 season. Gonzaga was the top favorite entering the 2020-21 season at FanDuel Sportsbook with odds of +700. The Bulldogs remain the favorites with current odds of +250 to win it all at FD.

Here is a look at March Madness odds for 2021.

To view more NCAA national title odds, go to DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook and/or BetMGM.

NCAA title odds: Futures report (March 8)

Baylor had been the co-favorite with Gonzaga at several books in the past few weeks but the Bears’ Feb. 27 loss at Kansas allowed Gonzaga to occupy the top spot at sportsbooks’ odds boards.

The Favorites

Gonzaga (+250): Gonzaga’s run over the past decade-plus has been remarkable. They haven’t lost double-digit games in a season since 2010-11 and are 24-0 this season thus far. They lead the nation in scoring (92.9 points per game; second place, Baylor) and scoring margin (+23.5 points per game). They’re also tops in field goal attempts per game and field goal percentage.

Baylor (+275): The Bears are making a difficult schedule look easy. They secured the regular season Big 12 championship after a year where the conference was at its best – fielding two top-10 teams and seven ranked teams. Baylor is second in points scored per game (85.3), first in 3-point percentage, and sixth in 3-point makes. They’re almost a lock for a top seed in the NCAA Tournament.

The Next Group

Michigan (+450): The Wolverines dropped a pair of big games down the stretch, pushing their final regular season record to 19-3. While those losses might raise a red flag to bettors, trends say that may not be a bad thing. Indiana is the last team to go completely undefeated and win the NCAA Tournament (back in the late 1970s) and just one team since 2000 has won the NCAA Tournament with less than three losses (2012 Kentucky). Michigan is still a team built to win in March.

Illinois (+900): The Illini have gone through the complete cycle – unknowns to favorites, back again, and back again. Kofi Cockburn is one of the most elite players in the country amid a resurgence of talented big men, leading the team with 9.9 rebounds. Ayo Dosunmu is a top-scorer in the nation, too, with 21 points scored per game. A dominant win over Michigan in the final few games turned heads and might provide the fuel Illinois needs to make a tournament run.

Alabama (+1300): The Tide are top-five in 3-point shooting this year, and the philosophy of throwing up as many 3s as possible seems to be working out. Three straight wins to close out the year secured them the SEC regular season title and the top seed in the conference tournament. Some might be worried about Alabama’s scoring defense, but their high-tempo offense naturally leads to opposing teams scoring more. They’re solid in most defensive metrics.

The Longshots

Ohio State (+1500): A loaded Big Ten saw an 18-8 Ohio State team land just fifth in the regular season race. A concerning mark was the Buckeyes’ three-game losing streak to close out the year that included to arch-rival Michigan, top-five Iowa, and a red-hot Michigan State team. While they have the talent to make a run at the Final Four, Ohio State could also be on first-round upset alert if they don’t find their groove in the Big Ten tournament.

Iowa (+1500): Contrary to Ohio State, Luka Garza and the Iowa Hawkeyes finished on a three-game winning streak highlighted by ranked wins over the Buckeyes and Wisconsin. They’re a dangerous team capable of lighting up the scoreboard. Iowa hit triple digits four times this season. They’ve cleaned up their scoring defense and are ready to make a March run. Which region and matchups they’re dealt, though, will make a real difference in Iowa’s chances.

March Madness betting sites

How the NCAA Tournament works

March Madness is a 68-team, single-elimination tournament that annually crowns college basketball’s NCAA Division 1 men’s national champion.

The event is aptly named, considering it features a frenetic 67 games over a 19-day period. The participating schools are announced on “Selection Sunday”, along with the exact seeding and brackets.

The annual college basketball rite of spring is sports betting’s most prolific multi-day event. Below you’ll find the current betting odds for the favorites to win the NCAA Tournament, along with key tournament details and betting strategy to help you during the month-long madness.

The first 32 teams to gain entry into the tournament do so automatically by winning their conferences. The remaining 36 slots are filled by “at-large” teams. A 10-member selection committee consisting of athletic directors and conference commissioners undergoes an arduous and multi-layered process to determine the 36 at-large teams and subsequently finalize seeding and brackets.

This year, the committee will employ the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET) as its primary sorting method for determining at-large entrants. The NET replaces the RPI (Rating Percentage Index), which had been utilized since 1981.

The NET utilizes the following metrics:

• Game results
• Strength of schedule
• Game location
• Scoring margin
• Offensive and defensive efficiency
• Quality of wins and losses

The NCAA has a detailed, step-by-step breakdown of seeding and bracket protocol on this page within its website.

March Madness betting history

The first NCAA basketball tournament took place in 1939 in Evanston, Illinois. Since then, 36 teams have won it all and five teams have won the tournament at least five times (Indiana, Duke, UNC, Kentucky, UCLA). Since seeding began in 1979, number-one seeds have won the tournament 24 times and have accounted for almost 49% of all championship appearances. Just three times has a team seeded lower than four won the title, and no team seeded below eighth has won, nor made a championship appearance.

Since betting lines were released for NCAA tournament games in 1985, underdogs have covered 44% of the time, winning outright 29% of the time. Games have gone under the total in 56% of games. Since 2010, games have gone under the total in 70% of games and favorites have covered in seven out of ten games. Three teams have won more than one championship since 2010 (Duke, UConn, Villanova), but none have won back-to-back titles (despite Butler & UNC appearing in back-to-back title games).

Since 2000, the top overall seed has made the championship game just four times but won the game three of those times (75%). In total, top overall seeds in the tournament have comprised of just 8% of the total Final Four teams (missed 13 out of 20 years). Besides 1-seeds, 2-seeds have the most championship appearances since 2000 (7 times), followed by 3-seeds (6 times), and 5- and 8-seeds (2).

Just eight percent (52/640) of all Sweet 16 teams have been seeded 11 or lower, and only 2.8% of teams in the Elite Eight were seeded 11 or lower. Four 11 seeds advanced to the Final Four (Loyola Chicago, 2018; VCU, 2011; George Mason, 2006; LSU, 1986). UMBC is the only 16-seed to upset a 1-seed in the tournament’s history (2018), and just eight 15-seeds have prevailed (5%). In 2015, two 15-seeds upset 2-seeds (25% of all such upsets) and two 14-seeds upset 3-seeds.

Using historical data when filling out brackets and betting March Madness, err caution; stats should be used in the long-run but when choosing individual games, be sure to study matchup statistics. The most important thing to remember, though, is this is March Madness, and anything can (and will) happen.

Tournament betting strategies

How To Bet On March Madness Games Online

The historical ATS data for each team in tournament play is just one of countless data points that can constitute March Madness betting research. Other factors that can hold considerable relevance include:

• A team’s late-season performances, including in their conference tournament
• Key injuries
• A team’s defensive proficiency, as this typically has more carryover into tournament play than a high-powered offense
• “Fading the public” when the line appears to be significantly affected by a team’s popularity, as opposed to actual recent performance
• Examining various tournament-specific historical trends, such as how high-seeded mid-majors have done in each round in terms of straight-up wins and losses.

Another overarching data set that could prove highly valuable is the performance of each seed in each round versus the spread. Courtesy of BoydsBets.com, below is an overview of historical first-round performance by seeds 1-16 against the number:

Where can you legally wager on March Madness this year?

Bettors physically located within the following states will be able to place a legal sports wager on March Madness games:

• New Hampshire
  

Then, there will be a flurry of sports betting legalization efforts unfolding at statehouses around the country during 2020 legislative sessions. Thus, hundreds of thousands of potential new bettors are expected to be part of the fun when the 2021 version of March Madness rolls around.

Based on recent progress and momentum, many states appear to have at least a fighting chance of implementing legalized sports betting in time for next year’s tournament.

February is drawing to a close, which means it’s almost time for the NCAA Tournament. While the NBA is king in terms of popularity in the US, millions of Americans will suddenly transform into college basketball experts at some point over the next few weeks. Filling out a bracket is essentially a rite of passage for Americans nowadays.
The NCAA Tournament is also one of the more popular events for betting on the American sports calendar. Americans reportedly wagered more than $8 billion on the 2019 NCAA Tournament, which was a new record. One would imagine March Madness will continue to set records in that regard moving forward, especially with the way sports betting is expanding in popularity and legality throughout the United States. About 47 million Americans bet on March Madness last year, which comes out to one of every five adults in the country.

If you’re going to find yourself in Las Vegas for the event, we’ve listed the best sportsbooks in Las Vegas that offer March Madness betting. Now, this leads us to the next thing that all bettors should take into account:

Everyone has their own strategy when it comes to filling out their brackets. Some take a deep dive into the numbers in an attempt to become as educated as possible about every team in the tournament. Others take a more simplified approach, like choosing which mascot they prefer or picking a team based on how cool the uniforms look.

That said, there are steps you can take in order to give yourself an edge. If you’re new to betting on the NCAA Tournament, be sure to take heed of the following 5 tips that can help you become a profitable college basketball bettor in March.

1 – Seeding Matters in March Madness Betting

68 teams qualify for the tournament on a yearly basis, but all teams are not created equal. In an attempt to keep things interesting, the NCAA convenes a committee of experts in order to seed all 68 teams based on perceived quality. The best teams in the country get higher seeds, while lesser teams get lower seeds.

A well-known program like Duke, North Carolina or UCLA is generally going to be better than the Austin Peay States, UTEPs and Florida Atlantics of the world. This obviously isn’t the case every year, but high seeds generally make for smart bets when it comes to the NCAA Tournament. In fact, no team seeded No. 1 in a region lost their first-round game until Virginia fell at the hands of UMBC in 2018. Before that upset, No. 16 seeds were 0-132 all-time against top seeds in first-round matchups. As of now, the record for 16s is 1-139 against teams seeded No. 1.

How To Bet On March Madness Games 2020

In the history of the Final Four, the higher seed has covered the spread a whopping 75 percent of the time. Upsets happen every year, but the smart money is still behind the favorites.

2 – Take Note of Defense

The college game is generally less fluid than the one we see at the professional level. College games are only 40 minutes long as opposed to 48-minute NBA games, and scoring is at a premium. Teams that coast through the regular season thanks to a high-scoring offense usually come to find that breaking down a top-tier defense is more complicated once you get to the tournament.

So, betting on teams that excel on defense is a wise move. Teams that rely too heavily on offense while ignoring the other end of the floor are prone to falling flat in the tournament. One poor shooting performance can lead to an early exit. The defense is all about the hustle. A team that plays with a defense-first approach is more able to grind out a result despite a rough shooting performance than a team that doesn’t give as much effort on that side of the court.

If you’re betting on a quality defensive team, it’s also smart to bet the under in those same games.

3 – Take Personal Bias Out of the Equation

This tip applies to betting on all sports, not just college basketball. In most cases, people like to back their favorite teams to win. If you went to college in Oregon, for example, you’re going to have a hard time not betting on the Ducks to win every game they play. That’s just the nature of being a fan.

However, betting with your heart is an easy way to lose money in a hurry. Fans generally think their own favorite team is better than it really is, which can lead to some disastrous betting decisions. The smartest thing you can do as a bettor is to either avoid betting on games involving your favorite team or take an honest approach to it.

Frankly, the games involving your favorite team will be more fun to watch if you aren’t also having to sweat a point spread along the way. Personal biases also apply to fill out your bracket. Don’t bet on a team to win a game just because you previously picked them to advance to the next round in your office pool.

4 – Don’t Bet on Every March Madness Game

With 68 teams in the field, there are plenty of betting options when it comes to March Madness. The fact that it’s a single-elimination tournament makes the stakes incredibly high. There are also enough games to where you can take a more disciplined approach to the action you want to get.

It can be easy to get caught up in the spectacle of the NCAA Tournament. If you do a basic level of research, you’ll probably start to feel as though you’re an expert. However, part of the charm when it comes to March Madness is the uncertainty. Needless to say, nobody saw UMBC beating Virginia in 2018 before it actually happened. Upsets are the hallmark of the NCAA’s signature event.

While betting on every game might seem fun at first, it won’t take long for you to realize that it was a mistake. Not every game is going to have great value from a betting perspective, which is why you have to be diligent about picking the right bets. Avoiding doubling down and chasing your losses is also a smart way to manage your bankroll.

5 – Location Matters

The NCAA Tournament takes place at a variety of sites all over the United States, and often times the locations are chosen strategically to help higher seeds.

Home court advantage matters during the regular season, and it’s even more meaningful at “neutral site” tournament games. Fans are more likely to travel in support of their favorite team if the tournament games happen to be located conveniently close to campus. Oddsmakers are on top of things, but any little edge can help you as a bettor.

Conclusion

There are no tried-and-true methods to ensuring that you’ll be profitable in your March Madness betting endeavors. However, following these easy tips will at least give you a head start if you’re dipping your toes into the NCAA Tournament betting pond for the first time.